{"id":1491,"date":"2018-07-12T11:50:13","date_gmt":"2018-07-12T09:50:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.external-democracy-promotion.eu\/de\/?p=1491"},"modified":"2018-10-30T10:04:21","modified_gmt":"2018-10-30T09:04:21","slug":"forecasting-candidate-states-compliance-with-eu-accession-rules-2017-2050","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.external-democracy-promotion.eu\/de\/forecasting-candidate-states-compliance-with-eu-accession-rules-2017-2050\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecasting candidate states\u2019 compliance with EU accession rules, 2017\u20132050"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>in: Journal of European Public Policy 25:11, 667-1685.<\/p>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<p>The European Union (EU) is said to be tired of enlargement \u2013 but how likely is it that a candidate would be ready to join within 10, 15 or more years? This research forecasts how prospective members are likely able to perform in implementing EU law until 2050. Using compliance data of all states from the 2004, 2007 and 2013 accession rounds, as well as of five current\/potential candidates, we construct an empirical model on candidates\u2019 ability to comply with the <i>acquis communautaire<\/i>. We employ in-sample and out-of-sample techniques to ensure high model prediction accuracy and, ultimately, forecast the five candidates\u2019 potential compliance levels in 2017\u20132050. Our research shows that <i>only one<\/i> candidate might sufficiently be able to comply with the accession criteria until 2023, while many are unlikely to be ready before the mid-2030s. Focusing on prediction and forecasting, our contribution is given by the research\u2019s policy relevance and its methodological innovation.<\/p>\n<p>Mehr zu dieser Publikation <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tandfonline.com\/doi\/full\/10.1080\/13501763.2017.1348385\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">hier<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>in: Journal of European Public Policy 25:11, 667-1685.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1491","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-publication"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Forecasting candidate states\u2019 compliance with EU accession rules, 2017\u20132050 - EDP Netzwerk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"in: Journal of European Public Policy 25:11, 667-1685. The European Union (EU) is said to be tired of enlargement \u2013 but how likely is it that a candidate\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.external-democracy-promotion.eu\/de\/forecasting-candidate-states-compliance-with-eu-accession-rules-2017-2050\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"de_DE\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Forecasting candidate states\u2019 compliance with EU accession rules, 2017\u20132050 - EDP Netzwerk\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"in: Journal of European Public Policy 25:11, 667-1685. The European Union (EU) is said to be tired of enlargement \u2013 but how likely is it that a candidate\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.external-democracy-promotion.eu\/de\/forecasting-candidate-states-compliance-with-eu-accession-rules-2017-2050\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"EDP Network\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2018-07-12T09:50:13+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2018-10-30T09:04:21+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"redaktion\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Verfasst von\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"redaktion\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Gesch\u00e4tzte Lesezeit\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1\u00a0Minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.external-democracy-promotion.eu\\\/de\\\/forecasting-candidate-states-compliance-with-eu-accession-rules-2017-2050\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.external-democracy-promotion.eu\\\/de\\\/forecasting-candidate-states-compliance-with-eu-accession-rules-2017-2050\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"redaktion\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.external-democracy-promotion.eu\\\/de\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d31e00ee83784377361c70f7f3c1d1bf\"},\"headline\":\"Forecasting candidate states\u2019 compliance with EU accession rules, 2017\u20132050\",\"datePublished\":\"2018-07-12T09:50:13+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2018-10-30T09:04:21+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.external-democracy-promotion.eu\\\/de\\\/forecasting-candidate-states-compliance-with-eu-accession-rules-2017-2050\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":167,\"articleSection\":[\"Publication\"],\"inLanguage\":\"de\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.external-democracy-promotion.eu\\\/de\\\/forecasting-candidate-states-compliance-with-eu-accession-rules-2017-2050\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.external-democracy-promotion.eu\\\/de\\\/forecasting-candidate-states-compliance-with-eu-accession-rules-2017-2050\\\/\",\"name\":\"Forecasting candidate states\u2019 compliance with EU accession rules, 2017\u20132050 - EDP Netzwerk\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.external-democracy-promotion.eu\\\/de\\\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2018-07-12T09:50:13+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2018-10-30T09:04:21+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.external-democracy-promotion.eu\\\/de\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d31e00ee83784377361c70f7f3c1d1bf\"},\"description\":\"in: Journal of European Public Policy 25:11, 667-1685. 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