{"id":2719,"date":"2019-09-01T20:17:44","date_gmt":"2019-09-01T19:17:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.external-democracy-promotion.eu\/de\/the-risks-of-election-observation-international-condemnation-and-post-election-violence\/"},"modified":"2021-03-17T21:20:49","modified_gmt":"2021-03-17T20:20:49","slug":"the-risks-of-election-observation-international-condemnation-and-post-election-violence","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.external-democracy-promotion.eu\/de\/the-risks-of-election-observation-international-condemnation-and-post-election-violence\/","title":{"rendered":"The Risks of Election Observation: International Condemnation and Post-Election Violence"},"content":{"rendered":"
in: International Studies Quarterly, 63:3, 654\u2013667<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Research on international election observation shows that observation reduces fraud, encourages participation, and boosts confidence in the election. However, this conventional account misses the negative, violence-inducing potential of observer criticism. This is the first study examining how observer\u00a0criticism<\/em>\u00a0influences post-election violence. Democracy depends on the loser\u2019s consent, and the willingness of election losers to be governed by the winners can be influenced by observer criticism.<\/p>\n
When reputable observers criticize the credibility of an election, they can encourage losers to challenge the result. Observer criticism strengthens the electoral loser by legitimizing a challenge and serving as a focal point for mobilization. Using data on post-election violence in thirty-eight countries in sub-Saharan Africa since 1990, I show that internationally condemned elections are more likely to turn violent than not-condemned elections. These results are robust to various control variables (including observer presence and election fraud) and accounting for potential selection, spuriousness, endogeneity, and omitted variables.<\/p>\n