{"id":3239,"date":"2024-04-08T20:00:09","date_gmt":"2024-04-08T18:00:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.external-democracy-promotion.eu\/de\/state-of-the-world-2023-democracy-winning-and-losing-at-the-ballot\/"},"modified":"2024-06-26T20:09:09","modified_gmt":"2024-06-26T18:09:09","slug":"state-of-the-world-2023-democracy-winning-and-losing-at-the-ballot","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.external-democracy-promotion.eu\/de\/state-of-the-world-2023-democracy-winning-and-losing-at-the-ballot\/","title":{"rendered":"State of the world 2023: democracy winning and losing at the ballot"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>In: <em>Democratization, ahead of print<\/em><\/p>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"ltr\" style=\"left: 13.56%;top: 31.73%;font-size: calc(var(--scale-factor)*9.00px);font-family: sans-serif\" role=\"presentation\">This article presents trends in democracy, autocracy, and regime transformation using <\/span><span dir=\"ltr\" style=\"left: 13.56%;top: 33.23%;font-size: calc(var(--scale-factor)*9.00px);font-family: sans-serif\" role=\"presentation\">the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) dataset version 14. We o<\/span><span dir=\"ltr\" style=\"left: 66.87%;top: 33.23%;font-size: calc(var(--scale-factor)*9.00px);font-family: sans-serif\" role=\"presentation\">\ufb00<\/span><span dir=\"ltr\" style=\"left: 68.06%;top: 33.23%;font-size: calc(var(--scale-factor)*9.00px);font-family: sans-serif\" role=\"presentation\">er<\/span> <span dir=\"ltr\" style=\"left: 70.42%;top: 33.23%;font-size: calc(var(--scale-factor)*9.00px);font-family: sans-serif\" role=\"presentation\">\ufb01<\/span><span dir=\"ltr\" style=\"left: 71.49%;top: 33.23%;font-size: calc(var(--scale-factor)*9.00px);font-family: sans-serif\" role=\"presentation\">ve main<\/span> <span dir=\"ltr\" style=\"left: 79.12%;top: 33.23%;font-size: calc(var(--scale-factor)*9.00px);font-family: sans-serif\" role=\"presentation\">\ufb01<\/span><span dir=\"ltr\" style=\"left: 80.18%;top: 33.23%;font-size: calc(var(--scale-factor)*9.00px);font-family: sans-serif\" role=\"presentation\">ndings. <\/span><span dir=\"ltr\" style=\"left: 13.56%;top: 34.75%;font-size: calc(var(--scale-factor)*9.00px);font-family: sans-serif\" role=\"presentation\">First, the average level of democracy as measured by the Liberal Democracy Index <\/span><span dir=\"ltr\" style=\"left: 13.56%;top: 36.25%;font-size: calc(var(--scale-factor)*9.00px);font-family: sans-serif\" role=\"presentation\">(LDI) continues to decline and has reached the 1985-level when looking at the <\/span><span dir=\"ltr\" style=\"left: 13.56%;top: 37.75%;font-size: calc(var(--scale-factor)*9.00px);font-family: sans-serif\" role=\"presentation\">population-weighted averages. Second, 42 countries are in ongoing episodes of <\/span><span dir=\"ltr\" style=\"left: 13.56%;top: 39.27%;font-size: calc(var(--scale-factor)*9.00px);font-family: sans-serif\" role=\"presentation\">autocratization, and 18 countries are in ongoing episodes of democratization in <\/span><span dir=\"ltr\" style=\"left: 13.56%;top: 40.77%;font-size: calc(var(--scale-factor)*9.00px);font-family: sans-serif\" role=\"presentation\">2023. Third, we are the<\/span> <span dir=\"ltr\" style=\"left: 34.76%;top: 40.77%;font-size: calc(var(--scale-factor)*9.00px);font-family: sans-serif\" role=\"presentation\">\ufb01<\/span><span dir=\"ltr\" style=\"left: 35.83%;top: 40.77%;font-size: calc(var(--scale-factor)*9.00px);font-family: sans-serif\" role=\"presentation\">rst to show that out of the 42 autocratizing countries, 19 <\/span><span dir=\"ltr\" style=\"left: 13.56%;top: 42.28%;font-size: calc(var(--scale-factor)*9.00px);font-family: sans-serif\" role=\"presentation\">are<\/span> <span dir=\"ltr\" style=\"left: 17.08%;top: 42.33%;font-size: calc(var(--scale-factor)*9.00px);font-family: monospace\" role=\"presentation\">\u201c<\/span><span dir=\"ltr\" style=\"left: 17.8%;top: 42.28%;font-size: calc(var(--scale-factor)*9.00px);font-family: sans-serif\" role=\"presentation\">Bell-turn<\/span><span dir=\"ltr\" style=\"left: 25.09%;top: 42.33%;font-size: calc(var(--scale-factor)*9.00px);font-family: monospace\" role=\"presentation\">\u201d<\/span> <span dir=\"ltr\" style=\"left: 26.65%;top: 42.28%;font-size: calc(var(--scale-factor)*9.00px);font-family: sans-serif\" role=\"presentation\">autocratizers, while nine out of the 18 democratizers are<\/span> <span dir=\"ltr\" style=\"left: 78.23%;top: 42.33%;font-size: calc(var(--scale-factor)*9.00px);font-family: monospace\" role=\"presentation\">\u201c<\/span><span dir=\"ltr\" style=\"left: 78.95%;top: 42.28%;font-size: calc(var(--scale-factor)*9.00px);font-family: sans-serif\" role=\"presentation\">U-turns.<\/span><span dir=\"ltr\" style=\"left: 85.71%;top: 42.33%;font-size: calc(var(--scale-factor)*9.00px);font-family: monospace\" role=\"presentation\">\u201d <\/span><span dir=\"ltr\" style=\"left: 13.56%;top: 43.79%;font-size: calc(var(--scale-factor)*9.00px);font-family: sans-serif\" role=\"presentation\">Fourth, we unpack the familiar analysis of the three waves of autocratization and <\/span><span dir=\"ltr\" style=\"left: 13.56%;top: 45.29%;font-size: calc(var(--scale-factor)*9.00px);font-family: sans-serif\" role=\"presentation\">democratization by dividing these into the newly discovered stand-alone episodes <\/span><span dir=\"ltr\" style=\"left: 13.56%;top: 46.81%;font-size: calc(var(--scale-factor)*9.00px);font-family: sans-serif\" role=\"presentation\">of autocratization<\/span> <span dir=\"ltr\" style=\"left: 30.44%;top: 46.81%;font-size: calc(var(--scale-factor)*9.00px);font-family: sans-serif\" role=\"presentation\">versus<\/span> <span dir=\"ltr\" style=\"left: 36.68%;top: 46.81%;font-size: calc(var(--scale-factor)*9.00px);font-family: sans-serif\" role=\"presentation\">Bell-turn episodes, as well as stand-alone episodes of <\/span><span dir=\"ltr\" style=\"left: 13.56%;top: 48.31%;font-size: calc(var(--scale-factor)*9.00px);font-family: sans-serif\" role=\"presentation\">democratization<\/span> <span dir=\"ltr\" style=\"left: 28.18%;top: 48.31%;font-size: calc(var(--scale-factor)*9.00px);font-family: sans-serif\" role=\"presentation\">versus<\/span> <span dir=\"ltr\" style=\"left: 33.92%;top: 48.31%;font-size: calc(var(--scale-factor)*9.00px);font-family: sans-serif\" role=\"presentation\">U-turn episodes. This analysis suggests that regime volatility <\/span><span dir=\"ltr\" style=\"left: 13.56%;top: 49.82%;font-size: calc(var(--scale-factor)*9.00px);font-family: sans-serif\" role=\"presentation\">has<\/span> <span dir=\"ltr\" style=\"left: 17.79%;top: 49.82%;font-size: calc(var(--scale-factor)*9.00px);font-family: sans-serif\" role=\"presentation\">increased<\/span> <span dir=\"ltr\" style=\"left: 27.26%;top: 49.82%;font-size: calc(var(--scale-factor)*9.00px);font-family: sans-serif\" role=\"presentation\">in<\/span> <span dir=\"ltr\" style=\"left: 30.17%;top: 49.82%;font-size: calc(var(--scale-factor)*9.00px);font-family: sans-serif\" role=\"presentation\">recent<\/span> <span dir=\"ltr\" style=\"left: 36.9%;top: 49.82%;font-size: calc(var(--scale-factor)*9.00px);font-family: sans-serif\" role=\"presentation\">years,<\/span> <span dir=\"ltr\" style=\"left: 43.05%;top: 49.82%;font-size: calc(var(--scale-factor)*9.00px);font-family: sans-serif\" role=\"presentation\">as<\/span> <span dir=\"ltr\" style=\"left: 46.15%;top: 49.82%;font-size: calc(var(--scale-factor)*9.00px);font-family: sans-serif\" role=\"presentation\">a<\/span> <span dir=\"ltr\" style=\"left: 48.44%;top: 49.82%;font-size: calc(var(--scale-factor)*9.00px);font-family: sans-serif\" role=\"presentation\">larger<\/span> <span dir=\"ltr\" style=\"left: 54.69%;top: 49.82%;font-size: calc(var(--scale-factor)*9.00px);font-family: sans-serif\" role=\"presentation\">share<\/span> <span dir=\"ltr\" style=\"left: 60.6%;top: 49.82%;font-size: calc(var(--scale-factor)*9.00px);font-family: sans-serif\" role=\"presentation\">of<\/span> <span dir=\"ltr\" style=\"left: 63.63%;top: 49.82%;font-size: calc(var(--scale-factor)*9.00px);font-family: sans-serif\" role=\"presentation\">both<\/span> <span dir=\"ltr\" style=\"left: 69.01%;top: 49.82%;font-size: calc(var(--scale-factor)*9.00px);font-family: sans-serif\" role=\"presentation\">autocratization<\/span> <span dir=\"ltr\" style=\"left: 83.17%;top: 49.82%;font-size: calc(var(--scale-factor)*9.00px);font-family: sans-serif\" role=\"presentation\">and <\/span><span dir=\"ltr\" style=\"left: 13.56%;top: 51.33%;font-size: calc(var(--scale-factor)*9.00px);font-family: sans-serif\" role=\"presentation\">democratization are made up of Bell-turns and U-turns, respectively. Fifth, out of <\/span><span dir=\"ltr\" style=\"left: 13.56%;top: 52.83%;font-size: calc(var(--scale-factor)*9.00px);font-family: sans-serif\" role=\"presentation\">the 60 countries holding national elections this year, 31 countries are in some <\/span><span dir=\"ltr\" style=\"left: 13.56%;top: 54.35%;font-size: calc(var(--scale-factor)*9.00px);font-family: sans-serif\" role=\"presentation\">degree of decline in democracy, while only three are improving on democracy.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>You can access the whole article <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tandfonline.com\/doi\/epdf\/10.1080\/13510347.2024.2341435?needAccess=true\">here<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In: Democratization, ahead of print<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3239","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-publication"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.9 - 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