In: Journal of Peace Research, 2026, xjag068.

Civilian suffering in civil wars regularly triggers calls for ceasefires, but do ceasefires actually stop the killing of civilians? Civilians account for a significant share of fatalities in contemporary civil wars, yet it is unclear whether and under which conditions ceasefires alleviate civilian suffering. We argue that ceasefires indeed decrease the intentional targeting of civilians by changing expectations and heightening scrutiny of belligerents’ conduct, which raises the risk of audience costs. To test this argument, we combine global ceasefire data with matching and difference in differences estimators. We find that ceasefires reduce civilian targeting on average but this effect is conditional on support by third parties. When a belligerent is backed by foreign governments, especially liberal democratic ones, restraint toward civilians increases under ceasefire. Additional analyses show that international attention to the conflict country spikes in the month a ceasefire is concluded, highlighting the importance of attentive international audiences for audience costs to materialize. These findings underscore the substantial influence external supporters can exert in enforcing norms of civilian protection and mitigating harm in civil wars.

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